The State of Truck Insurance in 2025: What Changed and What It Means for Truckers in 2026

The year 2025 marked a turning point in the commercial trucking insurance industry. For carriers, owner-operators, and fleet managers alike, shifting regulatory pressures, rising claim costs, and evolving risk technologies combined to reshape how insurers price, underwrite, and manage exposure. As we near 2026, understanding the changes and positioning your business proactively will be vital to maintaining coverage, controlling costs, and staying competitive.

Below, we review the key developments of 2025, break down the implications for 2026, and offer strategic guidance for truckers navigating the new landscape.

What Changed in 2025: Key Trends and Shocks

1. Steep Premium Increases & Hardening Markets

• Across the U.S., commercial auto insurance rates increased by 10% to 30%, depending on the region, carrier, and risk profile.
• Several sources flagged that primary liability, umbrella/excess, and physical damage coverage all came under pressure, with umbrella lines seeing some of the steepest increases.
• The American Transportation Research Institute reported that insurance costs alone averaged $0.099 per mile, contributing to tightening margins across fleets.

Drivers behind the increase:

• Social inflation & large jury awards (“nuclear verdicts”) have raised liability risk.
• Rising repair, parts, and labor costs, as well as lingering supply chain disruptions, have increased the severity of physical damage and collision claims.
• Cargo theft and fraud risk surged, tightening insurer scrutiny and raising underwriting thresholds.
• Underwriting discipline returned, with carriers applying stricter risk acceptance rules, lower limits, higher deductibles, and more robust driver/fleet credentialing.

2. Regulatory & Compliance Overhaul

2025 was also a year of regulatory change, and many of these adjustments have direct (or indirect) consequences for insurance:

• Elimination of MC numbers. Starting October 2025, FMCSA phased out Motor Carrier numbers in favor of USDOT numbers exclusively. Operators had to update their registrations, signage, and internal systems.
• FMCSA SMS/compliance scoring updates. The safety measurement system underwent revision. Reorganizing violation categories, simplifying weights, and emphasizing vehicle/driver maintenance metrics.
• Emerging safety mandates. Proposals and movement toward mandating Automatic Emergency Braking systems on heavy trucks, and possible speed limiter rules, were in play, raising cost and retrofit considerations.
• Expanded Crash Preventability Program. FMCSA’s CPDP broadened its categories, giving fleets more leeway to appeal crashes as “non-preventable,” which could soften the impact of some accidents on safety scores.
• Physical damage/collision coverage revision. Some insurers adjusted terms to demand stronger documentation (photos, repair estimates) and broaden coverage scopes to support better recovery from non-collision damage.

These regulatory shifts alter what insurers expect from insureds, not just in terms of compliance, but also in risk management, claims presentation, and documentation discipline.

3. Technology, Data & Risk Scoring

As insurers look for better precision in pricing and mitigating losses, technology and data gained greater influence in 2025:

• Telematics & driver behavior analytics. Insurers increasingly leverage telematics, near-miss detection, and driver performance data to refine risk profiles.
• Video telematics (cameras, forward- and inward-facing) and AI-enabled loss detection became more common in underwriting as a differentiator.
• Fraud and AI threats. While not yet mainstream in public reporting, the insurance sector is bracing for generative-AI–driven fraud (e.g., fake accident images, doctored claims).
• Usage-based / behavior-based underwriting. Underwriters increasingly tilt toward performance-based pricing, rewarding safer fleets with better terms.

In short, insurers are becoming more data-driven, demanding more from insureds’ operations behind the scenes.

What It Means for Truckers in 2026: Risks, Challenges & Opportunities

As we approach 2026, the changes from 2025 set the stage for how the insurance market will reward or penalize trucking operations. Here’s what to expect and how to prepare.

Expect Continued Premium Pressure

2026 will likely see continued upward pressure on both liability and physical coverage. Insurers are still recouping 2025 losses and positioning for legal risk volatility. Premium hikes of 8–15% are well within reason, especially for marginal operators.

Stricter Underwriting & Higher Barriers

Insurers will demand tighter underwriting thresholds: better safety records, more credentialing, stronger telematics programs, and rigorous incident documentation. Operators with weak records or spotty compliance will find access to coverage more challenging or expensive.

Differentiation via Risk Management & Technology

The fleets that will thrive are those that proactively adopt technology, scale up their safety programs, and partner closely with insurers to share data. Key levers:

• Telematics & video systems that detect risky driving early.
• Robust claims documentation (photos, repair estimates, audit-ready records).
• Proactive safety training and fleet audits.
• Cargo security protocols and route optimization.
• Engagement with insurers as partners (sharing data, participating in loss control programs).

Strategic Negotiation & Broker Role Elevates

Truckers must lean heavily on experienced brokers who understand the evolving landscape and can advocate for favorable terms. Bundling policies, negotiating deductibles, and layering umbrella coverage will become even more important.

Regulatory & Compliance Management Become Insurance Imperatives

Noncompliance is now a direct insurance exposure. Failing to keep up with FMCSA rules, missing the MC-to-USDOT roll-out deadline, or lagging in safety upgrades may lead to coverage denials, surcharges, or cancellation.

Regional & Route Optimization as a Cost Lever

Operators may revise routing strategies or limit exposure to high-risk corridors or states with punishing legal climates. State-by-state cost arbitrage could influence expansion plans or load selection.

Preparedness for Emerging Risk Types

Insurers will watch for new exposures: cyber-enabled cargo theft, AI-aided fraud, and evolving climate risk. Fleets that can show proactive mitigation will have leverage.

Recommendations for Truckers — How to Position for 2026

To survive and thrive in this evolving insurance environment, truckers should take a proactive stance:

1. Conduct a full risk audit now. Assess driver records, safety protocols, asset condition, telematics integration, cargo security, and claims trends.
2. Upgrade your technology stack. Integrate telematics, driver performance monitoring, dashcams, and near-miss detection where feasible. Use data to calibrate safety coaching.
3. Strengthen documentation & claims readiness. Assemble photo logs, repair estimates, event logs, incident narratives, and backup evidence. Make your claims defensible from day one.
4. Engage your broker as a strategic partner. Select brokers with deep trucking/transport specialization. Ask for benchmarked pricing analysis, alternative layering strategies, and contract negotiation support.
5. Crowd your safety culture. Expand training programs, set performance-based incentives, and make safety a visible part of your operations.
6. Stay ahead of compliance changes. Monitor FMCSA and state rulemaking; ensure your fleet is ready for AEB, speed limiters, CPDP appeals, and the MC-to-USDOT transition.
7. Explore alternative risk financing. For larger fleets, captive insurance, self-insured retentions, or loss-sharing alliances may offer a buffer against volatility.
8. Optimize geographic / route exposure. Evaluate whether certain routes or states consistently drive up insurance costs or claims risk, and consider rebalancing your operations.

Conclusion

2025 was a watershed year for truck insurance. Between premium jumps, regulatory shifts, and tech-driven underwriting, the playing field changed decisively. But with change comes opportunity: fleets that lean into risk management, compliance, and data-driven operations can differentiate themselves and gain better terms in 2026.

For those navigating tighter margins and heightened expectations, the message is clear: being passive is no longer an option. Truckers who lean in, modernize, and partner strategically will be better insulated against volatility and better positioned to compete.